The facility has been under various levels of renovation since 2004 when the oldest imagery dates from. Between 2004 and 2007 the compound remains roughly the same with only minor changes. It should be noted that the suspected static missile test site 2 km south of this compound was first built somewhere between 2004 and 2007, and only completed. In 2009 construction escalates; the fact that the landfill is in use confirms the construction happening during that time. In 2010 the first blue-roofed buildings emerge; speaking broadly, the use of blue roofing material has become more common recently and is often associated with industrial military buildings (for other examples of this, look to the IRGC's HSPB factory in Bandar Abbas, or the suspected IRGC engineering buildings adjacent to the 77th mechanized infantry division's headquarters in Mashhad). A number of new trees have been planted near the northern buildings and they have a more lived-in appearance. By June 2011 several new buildings have been erected near the entry-point as well as additions onto the pre-existing garages and workshops. Paved areas have also been expanded around these workshops. Not much changes by September of 2011 except for the apparent completion of construction on the same additions. There are also what appear to be, possibly, large tanks for holding liquids.
[EDIT: The picture below isn't the proper size, fixing sometime soon]
| Construction from 2004-2011 |
Looking at the imagery provided by ISIS (see hyperlink above), the blast appears to have originated in the western-half of the compound, likely from the two bottom-most workshops on the western side. Both of these buildings have been completely annihilated as has the blue-roofed building north of these garages. Several of the administrative buildings bordered with trees have also been destroyed, but it's unlikely the explosion originated from either of these buildings and it's more likely they were damaged and later demolished in the cleanup. The four other workshops all suffered significant damage though are still standing.
The place is a mess and detemining the correct sequence of events is difficult given the quality of the images from ISIS. However, in the "before image, there appears to be a crane outside the NW blue-roofed building. It is near a pair of tanks (of the type seen in the secure onsite storage). In the after image there are no tanks in the secure storage area and the crane appears to lie on the ground to the SW of its original position.
ReplyDeleteMark
Based on the debris pattern, the explosion appears to have occurred in the blue roofed building in the NW (upper left) corner. The radius of damage is consistent with an explosive force of between 10 and 15 tons of TNT equivalent. The first stage of the Sajjil-2 contains about 12tons of solid propellant. It seems likely that specialists were performing quality control tests, or experiments on the first stage motor, and something caused it to explode. Other possibilities exist, to be sure, but the aforementioned fits the data better than anything else I can think of. Other ideas?
ReplyDeleteNote also that the facility shown in the pictures is not consistent with a propellant manufacturing plant; the buildings are not shielded with earthen berms and they are too close to each other. I suspect it is a missile preparation facility, though again, the buildings are not safely arranged, as they are too close for even this process. Poor facility layout explains why so many died in the incident.
It may have been that the initiating event occurred during a material transfer. There appear to be more than one blast center with (what appears to be) a ground crater to the south of the blue-roofed NW building. This area, with the "tanks" appears to be related to transfers to/from the silver-roofed building to the immediate south (see 2010-05-03 and subsequent Google Earth images). Most of the peripheral debris points to this area as well. However sequencing and determining the primary event requires a better image. (IMHO, etc.)
ReplyDeleteMark
There's a higher quality picture available here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15960456
It also has a feature that lets you gradually adjust the transparency to go back in time, which is very useful since the alternative is importing the image into google-earth and doing the same thing manually which is a hassle.
That BBC image supports Mark's assertion as one of the two blasts appears to be directly centered outside the entrance to the silver-roofed workshop. You can actually still see the outline of the frames etched in the concrete.
The second blast is smack-dab in the center of the 2nd silver-roofed building.
Judging from what we know about the IRGC factories, I'd bet that the pressure wave didn't exceed 10 psi when it got to the 2nd column of buildings. While the 2nd column is heavily damages by debris, the shadows indicate that they're still, for the most part, standing.
There is no doubt this looks like multiple explosion event... The explosions all look like they took place in the center of the buildings. The explosions also look to be very precise like a guided missile attack.
ReplyDeleteI seriously doubt that this was some kind sabotage . These kinds of accidents have happened before during the testing of new missile systems :
ReplyDelete"Explosion of Brazilian Rocket During a Test Kills at Least 16"
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/23/international/americas/23BRAZ.html
Iran releases pictures of RQ 170
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/xObbm.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/NdilW.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/G50t2.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/cRdJn.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/TIE1u.jpg