In the short term, the Arkenstone will continue its focus on the Iranian ground forces ORBAT. This means renewed satellite IMINT analysis combined with exploitation of Persian-language sources. Unfortunately though, beyond a small update to the 88th AD I do not expect to be able to publish any detailed pieces because yet again I find myself embroiled in an independent research project as part of my degree; over the next ten weeks I will study the Libyan and Syrian civil wars and complete a detailed analysis of the tactics and strategies of pro/anti-government forces. I'm really excited about it because it's allowing me to revisit many of the themes I first explored when I came to college and started doing security studies like COIN, 4th generation and net-centric warfare, as well as develop some of my more recent academic research about Iran (like the need to buck-pass to local powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia).
Here's to wishing for an "Army Day" parade this year with plenty of high-quality photos from Tehran and the provinces!
Sounds like a great research topic.
ReplyDeleteProfessor Landis has been thinking the Syrian crisis might turn into something like the Lebanese civil war or even the Iraqi insurgency. I've added it might actually turn into something more comparable to the Algerian situation of the 1990s, should the regime manage to stay on top and perhaps prevail.
For American military audiences, I've suggested the most recent siege of Homs is comparable to the Union siege of Vicksburg in 1863. One might even draw a comparison to the regime and its supporters viewing the Syrian situation as an effort to preserve their "union", which was the number one motive of northern U.S. soldiers and not the freedom of the black man as is so popularly conjured these days.
Should you elect to share your finished paper, looking forward to reading it.
It's still hard to believe all of this comes from a college student. I'm amazed, what a bright future.
ReplyDeleteThanks Machines!
ReplyDelete---
Good to hear from you again Mark
Something I've been looking to do is find applicable models to compare both Libya and Syria to. Speaking of Lebanon (and Iraq), have you read Nir Rosen's "Aftermath'? I haven't read it myself, but I've had it recommended to me for this project; as I understand it, in it he asserts that the Iraq war unleashed a collection of forces that created the conditions for insurgency to foment across the Middle East. One of these forces was the reemergence of sectarian arcs of conflict which could very well be manifesting itself in Syria right now. Like I said, I'm not too clear on what he's saying, but it's one plausible theory at least.
I haven't begun looking to deep into the specific tactics of the Syrian government in depth yet, but I think they're going to be markedly different than the Libyan's response which was unique in it's own right. One case-study I've been comparing it to is the Russian's experiment with both pacification and (semi-)COIN campaigns in Chechnya. Iraq's also really interesting because a lot of the geographical concerns are the same (being able to wall off cities and impose spatial isolation of population centers). What's the logic behind the Vicksburg comparison if you don't mind me asking?
Can't wait to hear your take on Syria and Libya conflicts. Keep up the great work!
ReplyDeleteGalen,
ReplyDelete1. I recently discovered your blog and I find it thoughtful and informative. Good job.
2. What are your thoughts on the recent information about Israel using Azerbaijani airfields to strike Iran?
3. Further, recently, an expert from Baku, Azerbaijan (I believe a former presidential candidate as well in 1990s), suggested that Iranian troops can be in Baku in 12 hours. What is your assessment of Iran-Azerbaijan military balance and potential war scenarios between these two states? Of course, if such conflict ever arose, Armenia, Russia, Turkey, U.S.A, Israel may well be involved...
David
Greetings David
ReplyDeleteWhatever veracity of the extent of Israeli-Azeri cooperation is in this instance, I think that there are structural forces at play that create an Azeri-Israeli-Iranian conflict triangle. Iran has a historical claim to Azerbaijan, has significantly more potential power, and dwarfs it in nearly every way. Thus, in order to ensure it's survival from a potential threat like Iran, Azerbaijan has to seek outside assistance.
Assuming Azerbaijan continues to view Iran as a security threat (and it appears they will), it would be inevitable that foreign powers would become drawn in as Baku would have no other option for self-defense. This same line of reasoning also explains why the GCC countries have chosen to strategically align themselves with the U.S. This, in turn, is a key reason why I'm always frustrated by people who argue that countries like Saudi Arabia are U.S. vassal states; the states in question are pursuing their own interests as they see fit.
First Brigade of the 30th Infantry Division is Independent. The ceremony was held in Bojnurd. The Brigade is now known as the 130th Brigade. BG Mohammad-Kazem Tarekh spoke at the ceremony.
ReplyDeleteThat's excellent informaton, I was wondering about that. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteDo you have a link to an article talking about it perchance?
I'm having trouble finding it now, but I wrote down the details when I saw it. Also, according to Orumiyeh Vision, the 2nd of the 64th is now independent as well and is called 264 Infantry after Martyr Maj-Gen Ali Abdi.
ReplyDelete"I will study the Libyan and Syrian civil wars"
ReplyDeleteSyrian civil war?????
You must be joking, there is NO civil war in Syria, just a few bands of wahabi terrorists funded and aided by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Israel and the CIA.