Technical, Geospatial, and Organizational Analysis of the Iranian Armed Forces
Hi Galen,I am glad you started posting again. Many others will concur.Please give us your thoughts about the scenarios of the Israeli strike against Iran. What role could Azerbaijan play in it?Thanks a million.John
Azerbaijan's strategic value to Israel would be to negate the challenges posed the distance between Iran and Israel. The most likely route for an Israeli attack is usually assessed to be along northern Iraq, which would put the fighters entering Iran relatively close to the Azeri-Iranian border. Launching the fighters from Azerbaijan would eliminate the requirement for the IAF to perform risky, complex IFR over Iraq, Turkey, or Syria. It also means that the fighters can carry less on-board fuel, and thus more munitions, making any strike more effective everything-else-being-equal.
Galen,That's why there are reports and rumors and denials about the use of Azerbaijani airfields by Israel. Would Iran retaliate against Azerbaijan? If so, how? I can see several options: (a) it may strike the oil fields in Baku with missiles or airplanes. But Az-an recently purchased S-300 from Russia, (b) it may encourage Talysh independence, but during the last Talysh declaration of autonomy/independence, it did not intervene, (c) it may use Islamists for riots or uprising. I wonder if the 20% of the population, the religious who regularly pray, follow Koran, etc. will be able to overturn Aliyev regime. Any thoughts?Always enjoy reading you.Thanks,JohnP.S. It would be instructive if you can get a post about such a scenario.